Loading...
The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: a longitudinal insight
Heer, Amardeep
Heer, Amardeep
Abstract
To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%–22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%–36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms’ dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.
MIDER Authors
Affiliations
Citations
Altmetric:
Date
2024-01
Type
Article
Subject
Collections
Files
Loading...
Heer 2024 e37 1-15.pdf
Adobe PDF, 968.52 KB
Citation
Bird O, Galiza EP, Baxter DN, Boffito M, Browne D, Burns F, Chadwick DR, Clark R, Cosgrove CA, Galloway J, Goodman AL, Heer A, Higham A, Iyengar S, Jeanes C, Kalra PA, Kyriakidou C, Bradley JM, Munthali C, Minassian AM, McGill F, Moore P, Munsoor I, Nicholls H, Osanlou O, Packham J, Pretswell CH, San Francisco Ramos A, Saralaya D, Sheridan RP, Smith R, Soiza RL, Swift PA, Thomson EC, Turner J, Viljoen ME, Heath PT and Chis Ster I (2024). The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight. Epidemiology and Infection v152, e37 pp.1–15 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824000037
Journal / Source Title
PMID
Publisher
Publisher’s statement
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.