Predictors of long-term survival after resection of adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and derivation of a prognostic model: An international multicenter study (ADENO-IPMN study).
Abstract
Background: Predictors of long-term survival after resection of adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms are unknown. This study determines predictors of long-term (>5 years) disease-free survival and recurrence in adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and derives a prognostic model for disease-free survival.
Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms in 18 academic pancreatic centers in Europe and Asia between 2010 to 2017 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified. Factors associated with disease-free survival were determined using Cox proportional hazards model. Internal validation was performed, and discrimination and calibration indices were assessed.
Results: In the study, 288 patients (median age, 70 years; 52% male) were identified; 140 (48%) patients developed recurrence after a median follow-up of 98 months (interquartile range, 78.4-123), 57 patients (19.8%) developed locoregional recurrence, and 109 patients (37.8%) systemic recurrence. At 5 years after resection, the overall and disease-free survival was 46.5% (134/288) and 35.0% (101/288), respectively. On Cox proportional hazards model analysis, multivisceral resection (hazard ratio, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.60), pancreatic tail location (hazard ratio, 2.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-4.50), poor tumor differentiation (hazard ratio, 2.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-5.30), lymphovascular invasion (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.88), and perineural invasion (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.10) were negatively associated with long-term disease-free survival. The final predictive model incorporated 8 predictors and demonstrated good predictive ability for disease-free survival (C-index, 0.74; calibration, slope 1.00).
Conclusion: A third of patients achieve long-term disease-free survival (>5 years) after pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. The predictive model developed in the current study can be used to estimate the probability of long-term disease-free survival.
Author
Lucocq, James
Joseph, Nejo
Hawkyard, Jake
Haugk, Beate
White, Steve
Lye, Jonathan
Parkinson, Daniel
Mownah, Omar
Menon, Krishna
Furukawa, Takaki
Hirose, Yuki
Sasahira, Naoki
Inoue, Yosuke
Mittal, Anubhav
Samra, Jas
Sheen, Amy
Feretis, Michael
Balakrishnan, Anita
Ceresa, Carlo
Davidson, Brian
Pande, Rupaly
Dasari, Bobby
Roberts, Keith
Tanno, Lulu
Karavias, Dimitrios
Helliwell, Jack
Young, Alistair
Marks, Kate
Nunes, Quentin
Urbonas, Tomas
Silva, Michael
Gordon-Weeks, Alex
Barrie, Jenifer
Gomez, Dhanny
van Laarhoven, Stijn
Nawara, Hossam
Doyle, Joseph
Bhogal, Ricky
Harrison, Ewen
Roalso, Marcus
Ciprani, Debora
Aroori, Somaiah
Ratnayake, Bathiya
Koea, Jonathan
Capurso, Gabriele
Stättner, Stefan
Bellotti, Ruben
Alsaoudi, Tareq
Bhardwaj, Neil
Rajesh, Srujan
Jeffery, Fraser
Connor, Saxon
Cameron, Andrew
Jamieson, Nigel
Gill, Anthony
Soreide, Kjetil
Pandanaboyana, Sanjay
Joseph, Nejo
Hawkyard, Jake
Haugk, Beate
White, Steve
Lye, Jonathan
Parkinson, Daniel
Mownah, Omar
Menon, Krishna
Furukawa, Takaki
Hirose, Yuki
Sasahira, Naoki
Inoue, Yosuke
Mittal, Anubhav
Samra, Jas
Sheen, Amy
Feretis, Michael
Balakrishnan, Anita
Ceresa, Carlo
Davidson, Brian
Pande, Rupaly
Dasari, Bobby
Roberts, Keith
Tanno, Lulu
Karavias, Dimitrios
Helliwell, Jack
Young, Alistair
Marks, Kate
Nunes, Quentin
Urbonas, Tomas
Silva, Michael
Gordon-Weeks, Alex
Barrie, Jenifer
Gomez, Dhanny
van Laarhoven, Stijn
Nawara, Hossam
Doyle, Joseph
Bhogal, Ricky
Harrison, Ewen
Roalso, Marcus
Ciprani, Debora
Aroori, Somaiah
Ratnayake, Bathiya
Koea, Jonathan
Capurso, Gabriele
Stättner, Stefan
Bellotti, Ruben
Alsaoudi, Tareq
Bhardwaj, Neil
Rajesh, Srujan
Jeffery, Fraser
Connor, Saxon
Cameron, Andrew
Jamieson, Nigel
Gill, Anthony
Soreide, Kjetil
Pandanaboyana, Sanjay
Citations
Altmetric:
Date
2024-06-24
Type
Article
Subject
Oncology. Pathology.
Collections
Citation
Lucocq J, Joseph N, Hawkyard J, Haugk B, White S, Lye J, Parkinson D, Mownah O, Menon K, Furukawa T, Hirose Y, Sasahira N, Inoue Y, Mittal A, Samra J, Sheen A, Feretis M, Balakrishnan A, Ceresa C, Davidson B, Pande R, Dasari B, Roberts K, Tanno L, Karavias D, Helliwell J, Young A, Marks K, Nunes Q, Urbonas T, Silva M, Gordon-Weeks A, Barrie J, Gomez D, van Laarhoven S, Nawara H, Doyle J, Bhogal R, Harrison E, Roalso M, Ciprani D, Aroori S, Ratnayake B, Koea J, Capurso G, Stättner S, Bellotti R, Alsaoudi T, Bhardwaj N, Rajesh S, Jeffery F, Connor S, Cameron A, Jamieson N, Gill A, Soreide K, Pandanaboyana S. Predictors of long-term survival after resection of adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and derivation of a prognostic model: An international multicenter study (ADENO-IPMN study). Surgery. 2024 Sep;176(3):890-898. doi: 10.1016/j.surg.2024.05.010. Epub 2024 Jun 25.
Journal / Source Title
Surgery
DOI
10.1016/j.surg.2024.05.010
PMID
38918108
Publisher
Mosby