Assessing the value of clinical prognosticators of developing relapsing myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD)
Gilmartin, Christopher Evangelou, Nikos Tanasescu, Radu Papathanasiou, Radu Garjani, Afagh Ahmed, Sufyan
Gilmartin, Christopher
Evangelou, Nikos
Tanasescu, Radu
Papathanasiou, Radu
Garjani, Afagh
Ahmed, Sufyan
Abstract
Introduction 40-60% of people experiencing a first clinical attack of myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody associated disease (MOGAD) will develop relapsing disease (RMOGAD). The accurate risk prediction of R-MOGAD is challenging. Objective To study the value of a combined predictive model for developing R-MOGAD using clinical features described by prior research studies. Methods A combined multivariate binary logistic regression model was applied on a retrospective clinical dataset of patients with MOGAD from the Nottingham NMOSD/ MOGAD Clinic, with further validation in an independent dataset of MOGAD patients from the NMOSD Specialist Service, Walton Centre Liverpool. Results In the observational dataset (n=34), two MOG-IgG positive tests >= one year apart, age, optic neuritis and early relapses were not significant predictors of developing RMOGAD. Treatment with steroids >=10mg >= three months at disease onset was a significant negative predictor (p=0.006) of R-MOGAD, with 75% sensitivity (95%CI:48%- 93%) and 83% specificity (95%CI:59%-96%). In the independent dataset (n=68) used for validation, this predictor had a sensitivity of 55% (95%CI:36%-72%) and a specificity of 77% (95% CI:60%-90%). Conclusion Our predictive model suggests that the treatment with steroids >=10mg >=three months after the inaugural attack is a significant negative predictor of developing R-MOGAD.
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Date
2024
Type
Article
Subject
Myelin-oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, Recurrence, Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease
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Citation
Human, M., Gilmartin, C., Siriratnam, P., Rocchi, C., Tench, C., The, E., Evangelou, N., Huda, S., Tanasescu, R., Papathanasiou, T., Garjani, A. and Ahmed, S. (2024) 'Assessing the value of clinical prognosticators of developing relapsing myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD)', Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry, 95(S2), A58. doi: 10.1136/jnnp-2024-ABN.191 https://jnnp.bmj.com/content/95/Suppl_2/A58.2.